Leveraged ETF Arbitrage I
"Create Your Own Leveraged ETF"
Theory
This strategy largely consists of shorting a leveraged ETF and counteracting the exposure using futures.
Theoretically, leveraged ETFs suffer froma a "volatility penalty" in flat markets (e.g. 30% up 30% down is worse than 10% up 10% down)
In a second order Taylor approximation it is possible to show that the difference between future and leveraged ETF returns is equal to:
Given typical volatility, the leveraged ETF will underperform the futures by ~10% yearly in flat markets
Options are used to hedge the tail risks
Backtests:
Name | Start | End | Frequency | Data |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022 Backtest | 12/31/2021 | 12/30/2022 | Daily | CBOE Options Data, BBG and Yahoo Ticker Data |
Forward Test | 7/14/2023 | Present | Daily | TDA API Data |